Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break above the $79,000 area and after that rejection, the market has started to look closely at the $68,000 level as important short-term support.
This is shown in a report published by analytics firm Glassnode on April 29th, which analyzes market movements from the 20th to the 24th of this month based on global data. On-chain.
The starting point is the basic cost model for short-term Bitcoin investors, i.e. the average price at which they purchased BTC.
In the chart below, the black line represents the price of BTC and the blue line represents the average cost basis of these investors. The yellow and red curves indicate areas of high superheating, and the water-green lines indicate areas of low cooling.
“Price reacted in denial precisely within this area, failing to rise above the true market average of $78,000 and the short-term holder’s base cost of $79,000,” Glassnod points out.
This behavior supports proper resistance. Because many buyers these days tend to break even there and sell.. This rejection is reinforced by the graph of realized gains.
As seen in the image above, the black line shows the price of BTC and the orange area represents the profits earned by short-term holders. From mid-to-late April, the orange portion skyrocketed as prices approached $80,000. This suggests strong profit-taking.
“As prices approached $80,000, this metric jumped to approximately $4 billion per hour,” the report states.
Simply put, Many recent buyers took advantage of the recovery to sell, and that pressure limited the continuation of the rally..
After rejection, attention shifts to the support zone. The base cost distribution heat map shows where recent purchases have been concentrated. The black line represents the BTC price, and the colors on the map indicate concentration of supply. Darker colors indicate areas where more coins were exchanged.
This chart shows a tight band between $65,000 and $70,000. “The dense accumulation between $65,000 and $70,000 that has formed over the past two months reflects a great deal of confidence on the part of buyers,” says Glassnod.
This accumulation turns that range into a support zone, as many investors have set their entry prices there. Within that range, $68,000 seems to be the most notable level.
The fourth graph shows spot volume delta (spot CVD) across all exchanges. The black line represents the price of BTC. Red bars indicate seller advantage, green bars indicate buyer advantage.
Selling pressure prevailed during February and most of March, resulting in dark red bars. but, Towards April, the indicator began to approach neutral levels and a green bar appeareda sign that selling pressure is easing.
“Selling pressure has eased and buyers are returning to current levels,” the report claims.
In this sense, the company’s experts emphasized that while the $65,000-$70,000 range provides “interim support,” “the market remains trapped below the main resistance level.”
The scenario remains fragile. If BTC loses $68,000, the short-term structure could deteriorate. On the other hand, if it manages to hold that area and retest $79,000, the market could interpret this move as a consolidation ahead of another bullish attempt.
All of this is happening amid rising tensions in the Middle East, centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital sea route through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil circulates, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28, keeping energy prices under pressure and raising concerns about rising inflation. This situation affects the financial market and also conditions the behavior of BTC.
For now, Glassnode’s predictions are cautious. There are signs of stabilization, but still Demand does not appear to be strong enough to support a sustained recovery.
