Has the market really not bottomed out yet?
This idea actually has some weight when looking at post-halving cycles. In both 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin ($BTC) tended to bottom out around 875 to 917 days after the halving. This timing is fairly consistent with the large drawdowns we have seen, around 73% in the 2018 cycle and around 64% in 2022.
If this pattern holds true, it suggests that we may still be in the early stages of the current cycle. From a technical perspective, we are still only about 750 days away from the 2024 halving, which could mean a true bottom has yet to form. So the real question is, do you need a deeper adjustment before your next big leg up?
This theory carries a little more weight when you look at how the market is shaping up in May.
In March and April, Bitcoin has already recorded a combined rally of nearly 15%. However, some traders believe the momentum could slow down this month. $BTC Historical bear markets have rarely seen three consecutive positive monthly closings. And based on its post-halving cycle movements, Bitcoin may still be in that “in-between” zone despite a strong second quarter so far.
However, looking back at past halving cycles, there are important differences.
Unlike the 2017 cycle’s over 1300% gain and the 2021 cycle’s 60% gain, the 2025 leg actually ended at around -6.3%. Typically, the post-halving phase tends to begin a strong scarcity-driven rally, but this cycle already shows a departure from that pattern. Which begs the bigger question: Will the 2026 cycle deviate from the typical 2018 and 2022 bear market structure?
Bitcoin enters a supply tight phase as whales quietly accumulate
Zooming out, Bitcoin’s 2026 cycle is still down 7.5%, roughly in line with a typical post-halving move.
However, when zoomed in, on-chain data shows a different picture. The whale spot trade size is on the rise, and the cumulative signal remains strong. This suggests that major companies are steadily absorbing supply during the downturn. Meanwhile, the capitulation signal is fading as Bitcoin’s net realized P&L indicator has returned to positive territory, suggesting that market positioning is starting to stabilize behind the scenes.
Notably, institutional flows further reinforce this trend. Despite two days of outflows, the US Spot Bitcoin ETF still recorded its sixth consecutive week of net inflows, marking the longest streak of inflows since August 2025. $BTC There is now supply from long-term holders, up from 74.1% earlier in the cycle. A change of 4.2 percentage points is equivalent to 830,000 $BTC Transition from short-term traders to long-term wallets.
Taken together, on-chain data points to a supply crunch that is quietly growing behind the scenes.
From a technical perspective, the timing is interesting. Bitcoin is flat at around $80,000, a structure that favors bulls as supply is absorbed during the consolidation. If this trend holds, a developing supply shock could set a bear trap and break out of the initial post-half-life pattern.
This could reverse Prime Minister Theresa May’s bearish stance and open the door for a bullish turn, raising the possibility that the market has already hit a bottom.
Final summary
- Past trends after the halving suggest that Bitcoin may not have completely bottomed yet.
- Whale accumulation and strong ETF inflows suggest tight supply could turn bearish sentiment into a bullish move.
