Speaking at the ZKProof event, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake raised his estimate of the probability that quantum computers will be able to break current cryptography by 2032 from 1% to 50%.
Drake clarified that the numbers reflect his personal opinion, not the foundation’s official position, and that “there is so much uncertainty that we are keeping that cap.” “It’s very difficult to predict the future.”. According to Drake, the change was triggered by paper A collaboration between Oratomic and Google Quantum AI was reported by CriptoNoticias on advances in neutral atomic hardware.
Regarding this type of hardware, Ethereum Foundation cryptologist Thomas Kolatger supported Drake’s May 15 statement, explaining that unlike superconducting quantum processors (which operate on a fixed grid and require a ratio of 1,000 physical qubits for every useful logical qubit): Neutral atoms allow full connectivity between qubits Using lasers improves that ratio to just 10:1, making it easier to create more efficient quantum systems.
Kollager said the physical qubits needed to run Scholl’s algorithm (a quantum method that can derive a private key from a public key) for the ECDSA transaction signature scheme used by Ethereum and Bitcoin are 1 billion people in 2012, approximately 10,000 people in 2026. This amount “fits into a 1 square millimeter device,” he said.
The cryptologist further warned that “This race is so endangered that researchers are censoring themselves.”since paper Google is demonstrating a large-scale optimization of Scholl’s algorithm using zero-knowledge proofs (ZKs, proving the existence of a discovery without revealing its content), specifically to hide quantum circuits from potential adversaries.
Q Day’s schedule is accelerating. The chances that cryptographic related quantum computers (CRQCs) will break blockchain encryption by 2032 have increased significantly.
Thomas Coratger, cryptologist at the Ethereum Foundation.
Cryptocurrency networks will be attacked first
In his May 9 statement, Drake bluntly pointed out that the cryptocurrency ecosystem would be the first target of a successful quantum attack. “We’ll be the first on the chopping block…We’ll be the first to break.”
Drake’s rationale is that Shor’s algorithm can more easily attack discrete logarithms (the mathematical problem underlying ECDSA with 256-bit keys) than the prime factorization that underlies RSA schemes with 2,048-bit keys that dominate traditional banking systems.
“Forget factoring and RSA for now,” Drake said. We ask the audience to focus solely on ECDSA as the immediate threat.
Mr. Drake added information indicating the urgency of the operation. Even on a neutral atomic system with a slow clock (a quantum processor that runs at a lower cycle rate and is therefore slower to perform operations), cracking the key takes about 10 minutes. “it is, slot In Ethereum (block processing time) 12 seconds »He cited the interval at which the network processes and completes blocks of transactions and said he believes this is “reasonably good” for initial margin.
But he concluded with a warning: As the speed of quantum hardware increases, that margin narrows.. For this reason, as reported by CriptoNoticias, the Ethereum Foundation has set a goal of completing the transition from Ethereum to post-quantum cryptography in 2029, in line with deadlines announced by Google and Cloudflare.
Quotes and other testimonials from the industry
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has cited 2028 as the time when quantum computing could potentially violate ECDSA. Along similar lines, Mikhail Lukin, a Harvard professor and co-founder of the Harvard Quantum Initiative, estimated that fault-tolerant quantum computers could be available by the end of this decade, advancing previous projections of between 2035 and 2040.
However, Drake’s predictions are not isolated, and the contrast with previous predictions within the Ethereum ecosystem itself highlights the magnitude of quantum progress. Last July, Ethereum Foundation developer Ignacio Hagopian, in response to a consultation from CriptoNoticias, positioned quantum risk as something 10 to 15 years away.
In the face of this convergence of signals, Mr. Drake summarized the position of those working in defense: “My regular job is usually building cryptography to defend against quantum computers.”
(Tag translation) Blockchain
