Ethereum is trading at around $2.3 million, marking the most constructive price movement in recent months. For the first time since the start of orthodontics, $ETH It shows serious signs of structural change. However, given the history of failed breakout attempts throughout this cycle, the current move should be treated with cautious optimism rather than complete certainty.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
Noteworthy developments on the daily chart include: $ETH It has broken above both the top of the long-term descending channel and the 100-day moving average. These two levels have capped price movements for the past six months.
Therefore, if this breakout holds on a closing price basis, it would represent the most significant structural change since the downtrend began in October 2025. The RSI trending towards the high 50s and low 60s also supports this move, with improved momentum rather than an excessive spike.
The current test is $ETH You can break and hold the $2.4,000 zone at the daily close and build on it. The previous breakout attempt in mid-March disappeared as soon as it touched this area.
Still, a confirmed breakout and hold above it would open the door to the $2.8,000 resistance zone. On the other hand, if it is rejected and moves back inside the channel, the $1.8,000 area will remain an important lower bound and could be a demoralizing false breakout.
$ETH/USDT 4 hour chart
The 4-hour chart tells a more alarming story. $ETH Yesterday, it attempted to break through the $24,000 resistance zone. This move initially looked like a clean breakout, but quickly reversed after the RSI reached overbought territory, showing what appears to be another false bullish breakout from this well-tested supply area. The asset has since returned to around $2.3 million, just below the resistance band.
This is the second time in recent months $ETH tagged this zone as overbought RSI but failed to sustain above it. The uptrend line from the February lows near $2,000 remains intact and continues to provide a lower limit to the upside.
A pullback to a sustained trendline maintains the bullish structure, and a clean close above $240,000 as momentum subsides would be a much more convincing signal than the spike-and-reject pattern we’ve seen so far. However, if the aforementioned trend line breaks, the $1.8,000 support zone remains an important downside criterion.
On-chain analysis
The February crash saw a significant spike in Ethereum active addresses, with daily activity temporarily surging to levels not seen in years.
This sudden outburst almost certainly reflects the chaos of the surrender event. This means waves of panic selling, forced liquidations, and coin switching at distressed prices rather than organic demand flowing into the network. This kind of spike during a steep decline tends to mark the moment of greatest fear rather than the beginning of a recovery.
What is even more worrisome is what will happen next. Since this capitulation surge, active addresses have steadily decreased and the 30-day EMA continues to decline.
This could indicate that a lot of coins changed hands during the crash, but the market hasn’t attracted new participants to continue the upward trend since then. for $ETH To build a sustainable recovery, the active address trend needs to be consistently upward, not just spikes in moments of stress. Until then, price recovery will be difficult to sustain in the medium term.
