Bitcoin indicators fall to levels last seen near market bottom
market data shows Bitcoin Investors are increasingly realizing losses, with major on-chain indicators flashing capitulation signals for the first time during the current correction. On June 29th, Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost shared his analysis on X. UTXO The block profit/loss number ratio fell within a range historically associated with bear market conditions.
The model measures the balance of: Bitcoin By analyzing trades completed with a profit and trades completed with a loss, UTXOa transaction output that records the ownership and cost base of the coin. Bitcoin blockchain. The analysis states: UTXO “Our analysis shows that investor capitulation is underway,” he added.
“This is the first time this signal has been activated since the correction began.”
A decrease in the ratio indicates that more spending is being done UTXO This has been realized at a deficit compared to the initial stage of adjustment. Historically, this metric has risen during periods when profit-taking has been dominant, and then fallen sharply as realized losses spread across the network.
Historical charts show similar signals during the early Bitcoin bear market
The historical data displayed on the Cryptoquant charts included in the analysis places previous signals before and after the main signal. Bitcoin Each blue marker appears after the ratio has fallen to a depressed level, indicating that realized losses have become increasingly common before a subsequent market recovery.
The analysis explains that the latest readings are not a single market event, but the beginning of a broader capitulation process. It added that these periods unfold over an extended period of time as more investors exit their positions and interest in the market wanes.
Quinten François comments on the analysis. cryptography An analyst and co-founder of WeRate, which rebranded itself to Lokal, wrote about X on June 29:
“This indicator has flashed at every bottom of the Bitcoin cycle since 2016, and now it flashed again.”
This indicator is derived entirely from complete on-chain transactions, rather than price movements or derivative positioning. It tracks real-world investor behavior recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain and provides a historical measure of when loss realizations have reached levels previously matched by several major Bitcoin cycle lows.
